NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Texas now tops in SEC? Miami in trouble? Five overreactions to college football Week 11

With Week 11 in the books,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center the college football regular season has just three full slates of games remaining to sort out the races for conference titles and spots in the 12-team playoff. As the opportunities left dwindle, the results just completed will appear magnified. In some cases, the perceptions might be accurate, but there’s still room to overreact even at this late stage of the campaign.

We’re back to look in on a few locales around the country with the aim of putting the most recent outcomes in context. Here are the top five overreactions from a busy set of results.

Texas is back – to being the SEC favorite

The Longhorns are once again the highest-ranked SEC squad in the US LBM Coaches Poll, and for the moment at least they look the part of the best team in the crowded league after dismantling Florida. As far as the actual standings are concerned, Texas is now one of just three teams with just one league loss with Tennessee and Texas A&M. So as long as Texas beats the Aggies at the end of the month it will play for the league title, right?

Well, yes, but there are a couple of matters the ‘Longhorns must attend to first. Their next two opponents, Arkansas (away) and Kentucky (home) have already sprung upsets despite being considerably farther down the standings. In the nice, clean scenario, Texas will take care of those two games, and Tennessee will handle its remaining schedule to set up a meeting with the Longhorns-Aggies winner in Atlanta. But come on, who really thinks things will be that simple?

The U is back – to mediocrity

In truth, neither the perception of Miami nor its actual situation in the ACC race has changed in the wake of the Georgia Tech loss. The Hurricanes had a few narrow escapes before and will probably have others, so they weren’t exactly seen as the most dominant of undefeated contenders to begin with. As far as the conference is concerned, the ‘Canes would get the nod in a head-to-head tiebreaker with Clemson by virtue of their win against Louisville, so they’ll still make the title game if they win out against Wake Forest and Syracuse.

But what did change is Miami’s place in the at-large pecking order. A second loss, even if it comes in the conference finale, would leave the ‘Canes with a sketchy playoff resume, including a non-conference win against Florida of nominal value. The good news for the ‘Canes is they have a week off to regroup before a manageable stretch run, but they’d best leave nothing to chance and secure the automatic berth.

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Colorado is going to win the Big 12

We’ll say this much. No one in the league is playing better than the Buffaloes right now. In addition, Colorado sits alone in second, meaning it no longer needs help to reach the championship game.

The Buffs have three hurdles to clear, and the next two figure to be the toughest. Up next week is a home date with Utah, a team whose season has been disappointing but still has plenty of physical specimens at the line of scrimmage. The Utes also will be more than a little salty after the way their ‘Holy War’ showdown with league leader Brigham Young ended. After that, Colorado visits Kansas, which has a losing record but can still be dangerous – just ask Iowa State. If the Buffs get by those two and an Oklahoma State team that has clearly checked out on its season, it’s on to a likely date with BYU for the championship.

The bad news for Colorado and the rest of the Big 12 is it’s probably a one-bid league, unless BYU gets to 12-0 and loses in the title game. But it goes without saying that the interest level in Boulder is higher than it’s been in years, and now there are results to match it.

There will be no drama in the Big Ten

While the SEC finish is still very much up in the air, matters in the Big Ten appear to be all but settled. Oregon will face the winner of Ohio State and Indiana for the conference championship, and those three along with Penn State will all be in the playoff.

Honestly, this probably isn’t even an overreaction. The only potential agents of chaos remaining are Wisconsin, which hosts Oregon next week, and Minnesota, having a home date with Penn State on Nov. 23. Yes, Ohio State will have that small matter of Michigan to deal with, but an upset there is even harder to envision.

The Army/Boise State conundrum

Before we get into the specifics of the wild scenario we are about to present, we need to begin with a refresher. The 12-team playoff field will consist of the five highest-ranked conference champions plus seven at-large selections, with the top four of the automatic qualifiers guaranteed first-round byes.

Since this format was announced, most analysts have accepted as an article of faith that said byes would go to the champions of the four so-called power conferences, with the fifth automatic spot going to the best of the rest from the Group of Five leagues. That last spot figures to come down to Boise State or Army, assuming they win the rest of their games in their respective conferences. But – is it conceivable that that ‘or’ could be an ‘and?’ Given that both the ACC and Big 12 are shaping up as one-bid leagues, is it possible that both the Mountain West and American Athletic Conference champs could finish ahead of the winner of one of them?

Let’s start with Army, which absolutely positively has to beat Notre Dame in two weeks for this crazy twist to even be in play. But if the Black Knights can do it, then complete their AAC slate with a win against Texas-San Antonio then likely the winner of next week’s Navy-Tulane game for the league title, that resume would be hard to ignore. The Broncos wouldn’t have a win of that magnitude on their resume and would have to hang their collective hats on losing by a field goal at Oregon, and it would help the cause if the Ducks remain as the top overall seed.

In short, they’d both need to win out, and they’d probably need more upheaval in one of the other major conferences for it to happen. But it’s something to ponder as the next few weeks play out